Last Christmas, Ohio came within minutes of experiencing blackouts over the holiday due to electricity demand exceeding available power supply. The close call came during a stretch of extremely cold days over Christmas Eve and Christmas day. Thankfully, Ohio avoided blackouts, but states just south of Ohio weren’t so lucky.

This winter, Ohio, and nearly the entire eastern half of the United States is “at risk of insufficient operating reserves under extreme conditions like those experienced during a severe December 2022 winter storm that caused natural gas production to plummet,” according to the just released assessment by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, or NERC.

Ohio and surrounding states have seen more coal-fired electricity generation plants close in the past year. In addition, the supply of power available from natural gas plants remained the same. In the December 2022 event, natural gas plants, some considered “peaking plants” designed to provide extra electricity generation during high demand, experienced challenges because of the extreme cold temperatures. They could see those same challenges this winter. That scenario makes Ohio and other states in the eastern United States vulnerable to power shortages. 

"A similar type of event would cause energy emergencies and lead to significant operating measures to try to maintain bulk power system reliability," said Mark Olson, NERC's manager of reliability assessments.

The United States is seeing increased risk to electricity reliability over the past several years because electricity supply is dwindling as demand is growing. "Dispatchable resources (coal, natural gas, and nuclear plants) are not keeping up with demand growth and that's increasing risk for periods where demand remains high and solar output is near zero, which occurs over much of the winter peak period," Olson said.

When the sun isn’t shining in Ohio, electricity generation from solar is nearly non-existent. Wind power generation in the region and state is also impacted by extreme cold and cannot produce enough electricity to fill the gap. This is why these power generation resources are considered intermittent resources. Coal, natural gas, and nuclear power generation resources are considered dispatchable, or on- demand resources, but Ohio has seen coal plants dwindle from 21 in 2009 to just four in the state in 2023. The early retirements were largely due to restrictive energy industry regulations forcing closure. 

The 13-state PJM Interconnection — the region of the electric grid that includes Ohio and surrounding states — anticipates a 39.8% reserve margin of power under normal winter operating conditions, but the margin could fall to just 4.2% under extreme conditions, according to the NERC assessment.

What Can Be Done to Improve Electricity Reliability this Winter?

NERC's assessment provided recommendations for the 2023-2024 winter season.

Generation owners should address mechanical failures seen in past cold weather events, NERC said. 
Last December, during the Christmas weekend event, Buckeye Power’s Cardinal Power Plant never experienced failure. In fact it ran at maximum generating capacity through the entire event and kept the lights and heat on for Ohio cooperative members. In other parts of the country, generating facilities, particularly natural gas plants, failed to provide power when it was needed to meet the surging demand during the winter storm.

The assessment also recommended grid balancing authorities (like PJM) should also "be cognizant of the potential for short-term load forecasts to underestimate load in extreme cold weather events," the assessment said. In addition, reliability coordinators and balancing authorities should monitor fuel supplies and prepare operating plans to manage potential shortfalls, NERC said.

The winter performance of the U.S. bulk power system will depend on fuel availability, according to John Moura, NERC's director of reliability assessment and performance analysis.

"Whether there's going to be reliability risks in certain areas really depends on whether the wind output is as strong as we forecast it to be," Moura said. "In areas where we have a lot of natural gas reliance, it's highly dependent on whether there's fuel for natural gas generators."

Buckeye Power’s peaking plants, Mone and Greenville, are prepared, and keep a supply of diesel fuel on hand to ensure continual operation this winter, should Ohio experience another extreme cold event. 

Midwest Electric will keep members informed throughout the winter if electricity reliability risk becomes high. Members may be called upon to safely conserve energy during an extremely cold event. Staying connected with us via SmartHub and social media channels is recommended to receive the most up-to-date information.